Shapley Page 6

OTA, The effects of nuclear war
WORLDWIDE FALLOUT HEALTH EFFECTS
  Tropos Stratos C-14 Total
Cancer Deaths (DEF=1) 360,100  1,543,000  2,886,000  4,789,000 
Cancer Deaths (DEF=0.2) 72,000  308,600  577,200  957,800 
Thyroid Cancers 606,800  1,206,000  1,570,000  3,383,800 
Thyroid Nodules 893,200  1,776,000  2,311,000  4,980,000 
Spontaneous Abortions 49,700  188,200  736,500  974,400 
Other Genetic Effects 156,700  590,800  2,324,000  3,072,000 
 
TOTAL LATENT HEALTH EFFECTS
  PFs=5 PFs=10 PFs=40 Mixed PFs
Additional Shelter Fatalities 21,712,000  9,441,000  327,200  --- 
Cancer Deaths (DEF=1) 7,226,000  6,968,000  5,922,000,000  6,640,000 
Cancer Deaths (DEF=0.2) 3,326,000  3,056,000  1,997,000  2,680,000 
Thyroid Cancers 5,036,000  4,836,000  4,084,000  4,580,000 
Thyroid Nodules 7,413,000  7,119,000  6,011,000  6,730,000 
Spontaneous Abortions 1,494,000  1,433,000  1,200,000  1,360,000 
Other Genetic Effects 4,711,000  4,515,000  3,783,000  4,270,000 
 

TOTAL LATENT HEALTH EFFECTS OUTSIDE OF THE U.S.
DEF=1 DEF=0.2
Cancer deaths 4,545,000 909,000
Thyroid cancers 3,254,000
Thyroid nodules 4,549,000
Spontaneous abortions 926,000
Other genetic effects 2,919,000

OTA, The effect of nuclear war